전쟁부(DOW)-미확인 이상 현상(UAP)-D094, 미국의 비행물체 사고 분석, 1949

This file contains a U.S. Air Force (USAF) Air Intelligence Division study, “Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States,” Study No. 203, dated 04/28/1949. The analysis includes an assessment of various reported unidentified flying object (UFO) incidents and theories to account for their nature and origin. Overall, the study assesses that “it appears that some object has been seen; however, the identification of that object cannot be readily accomplished.” The study offers that two “reasonable” origins might account for the phenomena: technologies of a domestic or foreign origin. It also suggests that, if foreign, it is prudent for the United States to assume that UFO observations are attributable to scientific, military, or intelligence activities of the Soviet Union, and, in that case, to take seriously the threat such objects may pose. The file also contains selected contemporary UFO reports and examples of experimental “flying wing” type aircraft planforms that might account for certain commonly reported UFO characteristics. AARO Comment: This file appears to be a later revision of the file contained in DOW-UAP-D093, whose content is substantively similar.

Authority:
NND 857011



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Air Intelligence Report No. 100-203-79.
ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB ECT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S.
Air Intelligence Division Study No. 203
10 December 1948.
Directorate of Intelligence and Office of Naval Intelligence
DISTRIBUTION ''C''
WARNING: This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States
within the meaning of the Espionage Act, 60 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended. Its transmission or
the revelation of its contents in any manner to an .. unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Reproduction of the intelligence in this publication, under the provisions of Army Regulation
380-5, is authorized for United States military agencies provided the source is indicated.
Directorate of Intelligence Office of Naval Intelligence
Headquarters United States Air Force Navy Department
Washington, D. C,
DECLASSIFIED

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ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB ECT lliCIDENTS IN THE U. S.
INDEX
Page
SUM:MARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......... , ............ , .. 1
APPENDIX "A" - ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB CT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S.
It
3
Iritroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Some Aspects Regarding Flying Object Incidents 3
. .
Possible Origin of Unusual Flying Objects . . . . . . . . ' 4
Possible Reasons or Tactics for the Use of Soviet . . . . . . . . . .
Unconventional Aircraft Over the U. S. . . . . . . 6
Conclusion . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 6
APPENDIX "B" - REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF FLYING CTS AS OF
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APPENDIX "C,, - SELECTED REPORTS OF FLYING OBI CT INCIDENTS 8 •
APPENDIX "D" - FLYING WING TYPE AIRCRAFT 17
Germany ... 17
Great Britain , . 21
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United States 23
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MP l!Clt!,
ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB ECT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
PROBLEM
1. TO EXA:MlNE pattern of tactics of "Flying Saucers" (hereinafter referred to as flying objects)
and to develop conclusions as to the possibility of existence.
FACTS AND DISCUSSION
2. A DETAILED discussion of information bearing on the problem as set forth above 1s attached
as Appendix "A". The main points established therein are summarized below.
3. THE FREQUENCY of reported incidents, the similarity in many of the characteristics attributed
to the observed objects and the quality of observers considered as a whole, support the contention
that some type of flying object has been observed. Approximately 210 incidents have been reported.
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Among the observers reporting on such incidents are trained and experienced U.S. Weather Bureau
personnel, USAF rated officers, experienced civilian pilots, technicians associated with various re­
search projects and technicians employed. by commercial airlines.
4. THE POSSIBILITY that reported observations of flying objects over the U.S. were influenced by
previous sightings of unidentified phenomena in Europe, particularly over Scandinavia 1n 1948, • and
that the observers reporting such incidents may have been interested in obtaining personal pubUcity
have been considered as possible explanations. However, these posslb111t1es seem to be improbable
when certain selected reports such as the one from U.S. Weather Bureau at Richmond are examined.
During observations of weather balloons at the Richmond Bureau, one well trained observer has
sighted strange metallic disks on three occasions and another observer has sighted a similar object
on one occasion. The last observation of un1denttf1ed objects was in Apr1i, 1947. On all four occa­
sions the weather balloon and the unidentified objects were in view through the theodolite. These
observations at the Richmond Bureau occurred several months before publ1city on the flying saucers
appeared in a U.S. newspaper.
5. DESCRIPTIONS OF the flying objects fall lnto three configurat1on categories: (1) disk-shaped
(2) rough cigar-shaped {3) balls of fire. Varying conditions of visibility and differences in angles
at which the objects may have been viewed introduces a possibility that a single type object may
have been observed rather than three different types. This possibility is further substantiated by
the fact that 1n the areas where such objects have been observed the ratio of the three general
configurations is approximately the same.
6. THEREFORE, IT appears that some object has been seen; however, the identification of that
object cannot be readily; accomplished on the basis of information reported on each incident. It
ls possible that the object, or objects, may have been domestically launched devices such as weather
balloons, rockets, experimental flying wlng aircraft, or celestial phenomena. It is necessary to
obtain information on such domestic activity to confirm or deny this possibility. Depending upon
.
the degree with which this may be accomplished, foreign devices must then be considered as a
. possibility.
7. THE PATTERN of sightings is definable. Sightings ~ave been most intense throughout the states
bordering the Atlantic and Pacific coast lines, and the central states of Ohio and Kentucky. A map
showing location of sightings is attached as Appendix "B"
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8. THE ORIGIN of the devices is not ascertainable. There are two reasonable possibllltles:
(1) The objects are domestic devices, and if so, their identification or origin can be established
by a survey of all launchings of airborne objects. Domestic flying wing type aircraft observed
in various aspects of flight might be responsible for some of the reported flying objects, particu­
larly those described as disks and rough cigar shapes. (See Appendices "C" and ''D".) Among
those which have been operational in recent years are the XF5U-1 ("Flying Flap3ack") developed
by Chance-Vaught, the Northrup B-35, and the turbo-jet powered Northrup YB-49. · The present
.existence of any privately developed flying-wing type aircraft has not been determined but one
such aircraft, the Arup tailless monoplane, was operational at South Bend, Indiana, prior to 1935.
(2) Objects are foreign, and l:f so, it would seem most logical to consider that they are from a
Soviet source. The Soviets possess information on a number of German flying-wing type aircraft
such as the Gotha P60A, Junkers EF 130 long-range, high-speed jet bomber and the Horten 229
twin-jet fighter, which particularly resembles some of the description of un1denttfied flying objects
(See Appendix "D"). As early as 1924 Tscheranowsky developed a "Parabola" aircraft, an all
wing •d esign, which was the outcome of considerable Soviet experimentation with gliders of the
same general form. Soviet aircrait based on such designs might have speeds approaching trans­
~;onic speeds attributed to some flying objects or greater over-all performance assuming the
successful development of some unusual propulsion device such as atomic energy engine.
9. THAT THE Soviets have a current interest in flying-wing type aircraft is suggested by their
utilization of Dr. Guenther Bock who, at the end of. World Wa:r IT, was in charge of the flylng­
wlng program in Germany (See Appendix ''A", paragraph 3, page 4 ) . Achievements satisfactory
to the U.S.S.R. are indirectly indicated by the personal recognition he is reported to be receiving
in the U.S.S.R. Recently 1t has been reported that the U.S.S.R. 1s planning to build a fleet of
1,800 Horten flying-wing aircraft. Information· of low evaluation has been received stating that a
xm,
regiment of jet night fighters, Model Horten is at Kuzm1kha, an air base two mE.es south­
west of Irkutsk. Kuzmikha is identified as one of a number of airfields for the protection of an
atomic energy plant at Irkutsk. The Horten XIII as developed by Germany was a glider,
10. ASSUMING THAT the objects might eventually be identified as foreign or foreign-sponsored
devices, the possible reason for their appearance over the U.S. requires consideration. Several
possible explanations appear noteworthy, vi.z:
a. To negate U.S. confidence in the atom bomb as the most advanced and decisive weapon
in warfare.
b. To perform photographic reconnaissance missions,
c. To test U. S. air defenses.
d. To conduct familiarization flights over U.S. territory.
CONCLUSIONS
11. SINCE the Air Force is responsible for control of the air in the defense of the U.S., it is
imperative that a.ll other agencies cooperate in confirming or denying the possibility that these
objects have a domestic origin. Otherwise, if it is firmly indicated that there 1s no domestic
explanation, the objects are a threat and warrant more active efforts of 1dent1fication and inter­
ception.
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12. MUST be accepted that some type of flying objects have bean observed, although their
identification and origin are not d1scernable. In the interest of national defense it would be
unwise to overlook the possibility that some of these objects may be of foreign origin.
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APPENDIX "A"
ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB· CT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S.
AND HYPOTHETICAL TACTICS EMPLOYED
1. INTRODUCTION. To formulate the possible tactics of flying objects reported over the U. S.
assumes ?rom he outset that firm conclusions have been reached on .both the existence and origin
o! the reported flying objects. The current status of information on such incidents and over•all
analysis does not allow substantiation for such conclusions. However, the lack of such firm con­
clusions points to the necessity for an immediate and sound statistical analysis of every aspect of
the situation and does not preclude a concurrent examination of the reported incidents to develop
explanations of their possible tactics. The latter will be useful at some future date should the
existence and origin of the flying objects be definitely established. Therefore, the following analy­
sis of available information is advanced in order to present evidence on the actual existence of
some type flying object and to relate same to tactical purposes for which the objects are possibly
designed. The following discussion must be considered a provisional analysis, pending a further
detailed analysis of all aspects of the problem.
2. SOME ASPECTS REGARDING FLYING OB CT INCIDENTS. A cursory examination of evidence
on repo n s poss certain generalities which it appears
may be borne out when detailed analyses have been completed.
Among the incidents reported there are many statements by reliable and experienced persons
whlch tend to confirm that flying objects have been seen. The description of such objects seems
to fall roughly into three categories: (1) Silver disks or balls, approximating a Horten wing type
aircraft; (2) Balls of fire of various colors and intensities; (3) Cigar or pencil-shaped objects
similar in appearance to V-2 type rockets in horizontal flight. The numbers of configurations
might be further reduced with the following considerations in mind: Silver disks or balls have,
for the greater part, been observed in daylight and a number under clear weather conditions with
visibility unlimited. Iri most instances, balls of fire have been observed at night. Cigar, or
pencil-shaped objects have been sighted in fewer numbers but with about equal distrlbuUon 1n
dayllght and at night. A few accounts tell of the disks having a rough cigar-shape when viewed
while maneuvering. Some of the disks are described as having luminosity in daylight. It there­
fore is possible that a single type of object may be involved in all slghtlngs, and differences ln
description may result from viewing the objects at various angles and under dlffering conditions
of visibility.
The above tends to indicate that some type object ha~ been seen and the possibility exists
that the object or objects seen are conventional domestic devices, such as weather balloons, test
rockets, or jet-equipped aircraft with pancake or flying wing configurations.
The possibillty exists that the reporting of flying objects may have been influenced by earlier
reports on similar incidents in Scandinavia and Central Europe. The publication in newspaper of
details on such incidents, both foreign and domestic, may have induced eome of the description
provided in reported domestic incidents. However, one of the earliest reported sightings in the
U.S. was the one observed by U.S. Weather Bureau personnel in April 1947, at Richmond, Virginia,
and on the basis of this one report it appears that the disks are not balloons. It would seem that
this sighting was not influenced by the reports of foreign incidents, the newspaper accounts of
domestic incidents, nor by misident1.f1cation of a conventional object.
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Although reported domestic incidents are widely scattered throughout the U.S., frequency of
sighting and number of observers per sighting assumes a definable pattern. There ls a large con­
centration of sightings along the Eastern Seaboard; another large concentration throughout the
Western Coast states, and a few sightings in the Middle West. Distribution of. incidents by con- •
figuration af object and description of maneuverability is approximately equal 1n each of these
areas and this ls belleved to further substantiate the possibility that one type of object might have .
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been observed In dl:fferent aspects of flight.
?f sightings are induced by rumor, it seems unusual that more incidents have not been reported
from the areas with high concentration of population. Reports from such areas would also have
greater facility 1n channeling either to newspaper or official reporting agencies. For the most part,
sightings have been made in fairly open country where there are few restrictions to visibility, which
may indicate that obstructed vision has reduced sightings 1n bullt-up areas.
It therefore seems that some type of flying object has been observed; the ldentlftcatlon of
its origin requires the compet1on of other analyses.
3. POSSIBLE ORlGIN OF UNUSUAL FLYING O CTS. Provided, upon the completion of. analyses,
it is'ln<nciite~ffiar-iroi:ne01::-S:!rof'truri:wor1:ec bjects over the U.S. are of foreign origin,
the objects could from a logical viewpoint, be considered Soviet. It is evident' from the pertorm­
ance characteristics attributed to the unidentified objects at this time that if they are foreign, they
involve efficiencies of performance which have not been realized in any operational airborne device
in this country. It would, therefore, be a mistake to analyze the technical aspects of the situation
n
within the limits of our own knowledge of practical developments. ls more desirable to consider
then the outer limits of possible .soviet developments and objectives ln atte