전쟁부(DOW)-미확인 이상 현상(UAP)-D093, 미국의 비행물체 사고 분석, 1948

This file contains a U.S. Air Force (USAF) Air Intelligence Division study, “Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States,” Study No. 203, dated 12/10/1948. The analysis includes an assessment of various reported unidentified flying object (UFO) incidents and theories to account for their nature and origin. Overall, the study assesses that “it appears that some object has been seen; however, the identification of that object cannot be readily accomplished.” The study offers that two “reasonable” origins might account for the phenomena: technologies of a domestic or foreign origin. It also suggests that, if foreign, it is prudent for the United States to assume that UFO observations are attributable to scientific, military, or intelligence activities of the Soviet Union, and, in that case, to take seriously the threat such objects may pose. The file also contains contemporary UFO reports and examples of experimental “flying wing” type aircraft planforms that might account for certain commonly reported UFO characteristics. AARO Comment: This file appears to be an earlier draft version of the file contained in DOW-UAP-D094, whose content is substantively similar.

DEClASSIFIED
J
YSIS OF FLYING 0BJJ£CT INCi
IN THE UNITED STATES
203
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2 FILE
INFORMATION
3 NECESSARY
ACTION
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RETURN
4 SEE ME
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REMARKS
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1 vu _ Form --. 1 2, 10 Nov 47, whibb may be used.

t..trasucm nr1JIS10:1 srurn:
OI/USAF-'Ol-0:} ••
,
!ll!¾1S:: or,, rtm•o oa.Bar nicnr~:ij;s n1 THE u.s.
20) 10 nccembc,r 1948
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fl.TI:na t
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mrra
1. To e:P:uune ttom or tnctico or ~Flying SAucnr:.U (ht'1'Gimftar
roforre;l to oo .tl.ylnJ objeota) and to devolop oonclum,ona aa to thi
JX)Cllib1.llty of eximnca.
JU,crs
A~ DISCUSSIO.i
2 .. . A dotnUed di:ccwmion of inforoatio:l f.)~ on 'the F,Oblc
a.c =t forth above 10 otttiched. WJ Ap::, n<li.x rAo. Tho rm.n pointo oottib­
liuhed thereiJ:l nra au=nrl~od bol<m.
3. 'l'ha f'r4qu 07 or reported :tnc1d:mtn, tho oinilarity !i.t mny o!
t..~ elmractoti.ctice1 nttrib"i1t«l to -th:, obue:nrcd object nntl tho qunlj.ty
- a.r obtiorv rs comdderod ,aa 'O halo, aupport th cont,ntio.11 t~t co
t~ or flyiriG objmct ma b:lan obaorwd. A!)!Jroxit!.n.tol_y 210 itwi<Wntlil
lmv-s been ,:,.oportod. AnonB the obsorvarc r porting on auch incidantu
•
nra tr.:iinad and cxp,rienoed u.s. ll'eather nur~u ~ nnel., USAF rated
~accn, •~<.l!lced CiViliOJl piloto, toobnicuuts cumociatea m.th
vat""lO>JD resoarch p.rojcsctc and techhid.nn• emplo d by ~oiol nir­
l1ne••
4• Th• po■s1b1l1ty t •t reported ob nation ot flJ1ng object■
overt e u.s. r~ 1nn,umced by previcma lli(l21t1ne or lOidentut d
in nurop , rt1culnrl7 over "caDllinavia :1n 1946, and tl t
t. oblervara raoortit'lJl in'.!ldents bavc, int rafted in b-
~
•
nin 1 _tXlbl.1.eity t.!J.V Cl C
- 1-", t.ho pOS•lb'i 11 ti.ea itlprobabl.e lecttd
report• CWl II t C from u.5. ex-
adl.n • ' strmtion• or t ~ ba.llooo■ u.,
11 tMd "1'Vttr • ai Ud stran
.-,o • a: cl ano 11" ,arver 1 11 tt1 1Llilil.sr o ;j ct ~ ne

ocoolicm. \'bD laat obi,a~tion at \oidcnt1tiod ol>,,1eot,s wao 1n Al)rl.l..
. 194?• 0\ all tour ocoaaiono too tbcJi' Uoon and tl uninantifi-1
objcota wen !rt v1'n thr-<mgb thi tbeodolito. Thoco obotnat.1.ona at.
Rio~d nurcau occ~ •w.ntl 1:10ntha before i,.iblloity on tbiJ tl11nc
~aera a peared in • u.s. nG'Jfopap;r.
s.
Deecrl.ptiQ.'1\1 ot the tly:ln objoote till into thN• CnntiB\ir&...
tion cutagorioa, (l) diak-ahapcd {2) rou · cl~b:lpc,d (3) balls ct
fJN,. -~lo/,Ul!l conditions ot Y.i.o1b1.Uty and ditfeNUco, 1U angleo at
wlloh thtt objecto may havo been v1aw d :lntroducaB a pooo1b111ty, t a
o1nl9,a tYJ>l,I objc,o~ f/JAY hDv bOcn ob1orvad rtt.t.lier tl1IJ\ thr d.1.tt:•ront.
~a. Thia ~bility 11 f"llrtbcr nbatlntiate.d by tho taot that in
tM 'Wbo1'W auah ob,3eota bt&fl been obeetrvod U- t4nt1o ot tho three
em oaor~t1on1 io •P~tol-1 tm
'tm S.dtnt1ttcatlon of that obj a\ ®rlnot bet raadU¥ acccul)llebed on tb
bii11 of inl'ormation l'epottod 01:1 oacb incidtnt. tt, 11 po1otbla tha\
obj.ct, or objoot1, 7 betm do!lorltica~ 1&111chad dm.cCNI web
wetmr ballo=a, rook.9t.~ Mr ntal n.,,ttl(! ffinC aircratt, or' cele
ttal phenanana, It la n•o1N11&.\'7 to obtain tnto
aoti"fity to ~firm or deny t.~11 p1>anib1Uty. pendJ.na upon.
With whtoh thie 7 ae<impltehld, tora1 dffloeD 1:l\111\ n con-
•1d• d Bl a po1n1D111ty.
u
7. 'lh8 pt.item ot •1ftit1n detinable, 1 tin haw be
t 1n t the ltatea bof'der1n Atlantic clfio
at JJ.ne•• 1r1d c.t.ral 1ta • ot Ohio «nd ent\ieij. A
loc&Uon of el in ;9 1e at obtd •• A paidUt o "• .
s.,
den • not; qo 1.ri&bla.
(1)
ru

reportod flying objecto, particularly those described ae disk~ and
rough oi~r _aha~a. (Seo Append1eea "C11 and nn11.) Among those which
Jiave been operational in recent yeara are the XF5U-l ("Flying Flapjack")
.
developed by Obance-Vaugb:tt, tM Northrup B-35, and the turbo-jet powered
Northrup YB-49• Tb& ~osent exiatence of any privately developed fiying­
wing type aircraft baa not be.e n determined but one ouch aircraft, the
I
Aru.p taille$8 monoplane, was operational at south Bend, lndiana, prior
to 1935. {2) Objects are fore:i."1, snd it ao, it would aeem most logi­
cal to consider that they are from a Soviet eouree. The Sovieto posoese
• l, ' ' "
intormtion on a number of Oenian ni,.ng-1iringt1P9 aircraft such aa the
G>tha P60A, Junkers EF 1~ long-range, high-speed j~t bomber and the
Horten 229 twin-jet fighter, -whioh p-:irticularly reaablea ooe ot the
descr1pt1ona of unidentified flying objects (See Appendix 11011). As
early aa 1924 Tncheran01rt1k7 devoloped a "Parabola" airorart, an all
wing de&ilJl, which wno the outcoms of oonm.darabls Soviet experimentation
with gliderD or the oame general. form. SOYiet aircraft baf!led on ouch
deaigna m.1.ght bave speeds approaching trnnsonio •peeda attributsd to aome
flying object ■ or greater overall performance assuming the succ&as.ful
developxnent at eome unueual propulaion d~ce aaeh aa atomic energy
engine.
9. That tb9 Soviet■ have a current interest 1n flyinc•'Wing type
nr.
•iroraft 1• auggeated by their utilization of OuS1ther BOolc who, at
the end ot world rrar n, •• 1n charge ot the nyJ.ng-wtng progru in
Germany' (see Appendix ttA", ~•graph 3, page 4). Aobievementa aat1•­
taotory to tbs u.s.s.R. are indirectly indicated by the pereooal recog­
u.s.s.n.
nition h• 1• report.ed to be NoetTing in the Recently it ha11
been repoi-ted tt»t the u.s.s.R. 1• planning to build a n ..t of 1,800
- Horten flying-Wing aircraft. Informati(m of low evaluation baa baon
reoeind etatintr t!nt a regl.lns.nt ot jet m.ght .tishtere, Hod•l Ilorten
XIII, 11 at Kumm:f kha, an air base two miles t1outl'Pfea\ of Iiokutak.

Kurm;ti kha. is identified as one of a number of airfields for the pro-
- tection ot an atomic energy plant at Irkutsk. The Horten XllI as
developed by Oermny ,ms o. glider.
10. Assu.idng that the objects might t,ventually be identifiod as
forei~ or foreign-sponsored dev-lces, the possible reason for their
u.s.
appe,arance over the requires consideration. Several posoible ex­
planations appsnr noteworthy,, v.i.zi
u.s.
a. To ne~te confidence in the a.tom bomb as tho moot
advanced ond decisive weapon in warfare.
b. To perform photographic reconnaissance missions.
u.s.
c. To test air defenoeo.
u.s.
d. To conduct :f'ami.liari~ation £lights over territoey.
OONCLUSI<llS
u . tm
Since .Ur r.-orce is reaponsiblo for control or the air in
- the dofcnae of the u.s~, it is 1.mperativn that all other agenoies oo-­
opsratc, 1n confirming or denying the poeoibility that theae obje-,ts
have a domestic or1:61n• otherwiao, if it is fir.inly indicated t.bat
there 1a no d01ne1t10 explanation, tM object• are a throa~ and warrant
m.ore activo etforta of identification and intorc~tion.
12. It mua-t be accepted tmt some type of fi1ina obj•ots ha'Ye been
obae"11d, although their identification and origin are not diaoernabl.e.
Di the intereot ot' national defense it would bj un'rfiN to overlook the
po~sibility that e e ot tmee objects i:ny bs of toreia;i origin•
4 Inole1
u.s.
l~ " d1X "A" - Analyaie of Flying Objeot Inoidents in tbl and
Hypoth9t1oal Taotios Employed
.Appendix "B• - Plot or Flying Objeo'b S1Sht,1np in the U.S.
Appendix II C1' .. Selected Reports of Plying ObJeot Incident•
Appl.tldb. ?tD• - FlJing lfinl Type Airoratt

APPEiDIX
llAlf
ANALYSIS OF FLYilTG OBJECT IUCIDENTS Ilf Tlm U.S.
AND HTPOTHETIOAL TAOTICS l'?iPLOXED
l. Introduction. To formulate tho possible tactic• of
jects reported ovor the U.S. assumes from the outGet that firm conclu­
sions have beon reached on both the exiotonce pnd origin of the r oported
flying objects. The current status of information on such incidents
and overall analys1o doec not cllow subotentiation for auoh concluaione.
However. the lack of such firm concluaions points to the necessity for
an immodiato and sound statisticnl annl7oiA of every nepect of the aituo.­
tion and doeo not proclude a concurrent examination of the reported in­
cidents to develop explanatione of their possible tactioe. The latter
will be useful at oome future date ohould tho exictencea.ndoririn of the
flying objocts be definitely e•tabliahed. Theroforc, tho followint;
anolyais of availablo information ii advanced in order to praeent evi­
dence on the actunl exhtenoa of somo tn,e fl7ill(; object and to relate
samo to tactical purposen for which the objects are pose1bly deeiEned.
The foJ.lovin,:; dhcueslo.n mu.at be cone1derod a provi111onal o.nalycie,
pend1n6 a further dotailod analyaio of all aspects of the problem.
2. Somn J1.1rpoota RMIU'tllM F171na ObJeot Incld~nt4. A. cureory
cxaM1nat1on of evidence on reported incident ■ haa been mnde o.nd it 1•
po111ble to cite certain genorAlltiee which it npp~nre MQ.1 be borne out
when detailed a.nal71os ha~• been completed.
Amo~ the 1noidentB reported there are m&IJ.1' otatemonta by
reliable and experienced pereone which t~nd to confirll that fl7lng ob­
j~ote havo been aeon. The detcription of ouch objeot~ 1nem• to fall
rou«hl7 into thre• catogor1$ ■: (1) 811••r dieke or balls. &pproxil0at1n&
- a Horton will«$ tn>e aircraft; (a) Dal.le Qf fire ot Tnrlous colore and
lntenei\101; (3) Ott r or p noil-shaped object, atmtl~r i~ apponronce
\o V-2 type rockets in horliontal flight. ihe numbere of configurations
1

>
might be further roduced wi the follow~ conoideratione i n mind:
Silver disks or balls have, or the greater part, been observed in
daylight nnd a number under lear weather conditions with visibility
unlit1i~edt In aost instanc a. balla of fire have been oboerved at
night. Oie;ar. or pencil-sh od objects have been aig~tod in fe\fer
nwnbers but ~,ith about equa distribution in daylight and at nieht.
A few accounts toll of ·eks havil'.l,f; u rough eigar-ahapo whon
viewed vh1lo maneuvering. me of the dioka are described no having
lw:ninoa1t7 in daylight. hereforo is poseible that e sin&lo type
of object J11a1 be involved i cightinga. and diffo~onceo in dee­
cription n1A7 reault from vi ng tho objects at variouo ~lee and
under diftoring conditiona vieib1lit1.
Tho n.boTo indicate that some type object h:l.e been oeen
and tho poseibil ity t tho object or obJecta aeen aro conven-
tional domestic deviceG, ru e.a we&thor balloons, test rockets, or Jet­
equ.ipped aircraft with pane or flyi~ will£ oonfigur~tiona.
The nos1ibility e ate that the reportiJ:I& of f~ill8 objects
may have rliar reports on similar inoidente in
Soondino.via. and OllXltral Ilur The publication in newaq>npera of de­
tails on auch incidents. bo foreign and dom~atic. 1187 hove induced
eo~o of the description pro ded in reported domeatic inoidenta. However,
one of the enrlieot reporte 1ightiD4t~ in thou.a. wae the one obaencd
by U.S. Weather Dureau per1 el in April 1947, at lliobmon,, \irginia.
and on \hG baei• ot report lt appears that the diek• are not
bulloonn. It vould aeem \ thin aighttng w•• not lnflueno~d by the re-
port• of forGt n 1nc1dontm, be nev~Bfer aooou.nte of domoetic lnoidente,
- nor by mieldentiflcation of conTcntional object.
Altho~h reported mestie 1noidonte are l.1id.oly aoetterod through­
out the u.s., fregy.ency of ,;htl:ng a.nd n'U.lllber of obeervors per sighUue;

. '
'asouoes a definable pattern." There is a large concentration of aight­
inga along the ~stern Seaboard. another large concentration throU(;h­
out the 1t'ostern Coast states, and a few sightiru?s '-n the Mi ddle ,1est.
. -
Distribution of incidonts by configuration of object snd description
of maneuverability is approximately equal in each of theoo araaa and
this i o believed to further 'substantiate the possibility tbet one type
of object mieht have been observed in different asneots of fli€ht .
If sightings are induced by rumor, it seeca unusU£>1 t.lult more
incidenta have not been reported from tho vreas with hi€h concentra-
t 1on of population. Reports from such areas would also hnve creater
facility in channel1IJG either to newspapers or official reporting ngon­
clee. For the most part, _o1ght1J1;€s have b~en made 1n fairly onen country
where there are few ro,trictione to vhibilit7, .·~-hich may indicate that .
obstructod vision hn.o reduced oightingo in bu11,-up aroas.
It thorofore Geems th.at aome type of flying objoct has been ob­
served; tho identification of ita origin requires tho co~!pletion of other
3. Eoaa1blo Or1«1~ of UnuoU4l J'lrlns Objnpt1& Provided, upon the
completion of annlyaeB, it 1c inrlicated that nome or nll of the reported
flyill8 objects over the U.S. nro of foreign or1&in, the objectc could
from a logical viewpoint, be couaidered Soviet. It is evident from the
perforaance character1et1oe attributed to the un1dnntified objectn at
thiu time that 1f they are foreign, the1 involve efficiencies of por­
formanoe which hnve not been ro&liz•d in nn~ op~rat1ollt\l airborne de­
vice in thie country. It would, therefo•e, be o. rnietake to analyae the
technical n,weets of the situation within th• limtt, of our cwn knowl­
edge of p~actinnl dcvelopmentn. It is more deeirable to consider then
the 0\1ter llmiti, of poealble Soviet develop11entfl and objecti1.ve11 in nt•
tEJmptlng to !c,rmul&.te aom idea of the tectic" whioh might be involved.